The Association of American Publishers (AAP) released its final industry sales estimates for 2023, indicating a slight downturn of 0.8% from the previous year, totaling $29.9 billion. This update marks the first occasion AAP collaborated with Industry Insight, Inc., a data analytics firm, to refine its sales figures. Notably, this new partnership led to upward adjustments in sales figures dating back to 2019, with the exception of 2021.
Despite these revisions presenting a larger industry scale, the essence remains unchanged—book publishing continues as a relatively low-growth sector. From 2019 to 2023, the industry saw a 6.1% increase in sales, trailing behind the overall inflation rate. Specifically, in 2023, the disparity between dollar sales and unit sales was more pronounced than in previous years, with unit sales dropping 5.7% to 3.05 billion units, underscoring a rise in net book prices.
The AAP’s method of calculating its average net unit price (ANUP), which rose by an average of 7% across all trade formats in 2023, reflects not the consumer prices but what publishers charge their accounts, including booksellers and other vendors.
Breaking Down the Numbers
In the trade segment, total dollar sales declined by 1.4% to an estimated $18.7 billion, with unit sales dropping 8.1%. Contrastingly, the sectors of higher education and professional books each reported a growth of 1.5%. The Pre-K–12 education segment saw a marginal increase of 0.3%, while university presses experienced a significant decline of 9.8%.
The religious press segment emerged as a strong performer within the trade category, witnessing a sales increase of 6.7%. In contrast, the adult fiction category saw a slight decrease of 1.0%, whereas adult nonfiction grew by 2.6%. The children’s/young adult nonfiction suffered the most, with an almost 18% decline in sales.
Digital formats, particularly digital audiobooks and e-books, showed remarkable resilience, with audiobook sales surging by 18.2% and e-book sales growing by 2%. This shift highlights a growing preference for digital over traditional formats, with digital audio poised to surpass e-book sales in the near future.
Channel Dynamics
Online retail sales rebounded strongly by 10.7%, largely propelled by strategic moves from Amazon to trim orders while clearing existing inventory. This shift resulted in online outlets capturing 45.3% of trade sales. Physical retailers also held steady, marking a slight increase of 0.4%.
Conversely, sales through intermediaries and exports declined, reflecting potential softening in library sales and international demand. Notably, direct sales plummeted by nearly 43%, indicating a significant retreat from previous levels.
The Impact of Inclusive Access
The report also sheds light on inclusive access/equitable access (IA/EA) programs in the higher education market, which surged by 24.1% in 2023. These programs are increasingly shaping how college students acquire their course materials, integrating these costs into tuition fees. This model nearly matched the sales of print books, which fell by 6.5% last year, showcasing a pivotal shift in educational material consumption.
As the publishing industry navigates through these nuanced changes, small business owners and solopreneurs in the sector should closely monitor these trends to adapt their strategies in an evolving market landscape.
